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Implied vs realized volatility

the option-mispricing edge · Options & probability — the math of “what are the odds?”

Realized volatility

How much the stock has actually moved, measured from its price history.

Implied volatility

How much the options market expects it to move, backed out of what options currently cost.

What the gap tells you

When implied is below realized, the options market is pricing in less movement than the stock typically delivers — the option may be cheap. That gap (the app calls it the “value edge”) is the heart of the LEAPS opportunity score: a cheap option on a stock that’s set to move is the mispricing worth hunting.

The calculation
value edge = realized volatility − implied volatility
positive edge = the option is priced cheap vs how the stock actually moves
What each piece means
realized vol
— the stock’s actual past swinginess, from price history
implied vol
— the swinginess the option’s price is baking in for the future
Dig deeper
See it run on live stocks →Weekly Monitor computes this on ~1,000 names — free, in your browser, every formula shown. Nothing here is advice.
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